Prediction is not our forte

It doesn’t take more than a cursory glance at popular mass media today to realise that a lot of people hang on to every word uttered by celebrities and film stars, even though some of these “modern oracles” have IQs that may not come close to reaching double figures. On the other hand, are we able to believe people who have IQs so high that they qualify for the top echelons of Mensa, or at the very least are considered to be leaders in their particular fields of endeavour?

I asked my trusty research assistant, Mr Google, to delve into the success rate of so-called experts in predicting the future. He came up with some startling evidence in favour of the notion that no-one, however clever, can make accurate predictions.

Charles H Duell, commissioner of the US Office of Patents, pronounced in 1899: “Everything that can be invented has been invented”, in what was perhaps the worst prediction ever made. But Commissioner Duell is by no means an exception. There were those who saw no future for the telephone, radio and aeroplanes.

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”  —  Western Union internal memo, 1876.

“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” — David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” — Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

“Aeroplanes are interesting toys, but of no military value.” — Marechal Ferdinand Foch, professor of strategy at l’École supérieure de guerre.

Scientists may be bright, but not always right.

“Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” — Pierre Pachet, professor of physiology at Toulouse, 1872.

“The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.” — Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed surgeon extraordinary to the Queen

“Professor Goddard does not know the relation between action and reaction and the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.” — 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard’s revolutionary rocket work.

The personal computer once was the stuff of science fiction.

“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1,5 tons.” — Popular Mechanics magazine, forecasting the relentless march of science in 1949.

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

“640K ought to be enough for anybody.” — Bill Gates, 1981.

“But what…is it good for?” — Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977.

“I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.

Business ideas might have floundered if future magnates had listened to their judgments.

“So we went to Atari and said: ‘Hey, we’ve got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we’ll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we’ll come work for you.’ And they said, ‘No’. So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, ‘Hey, we don’t need you. You haven’t got through college yet’.” — Apple Computer Inc founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and Hewlett-Packard interested in his and Steve Wozniak’s personal computer.

“Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You’re crazy.” — Drillers whom Edwin L Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

“The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C’, the idea must be feasible.” — A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith’s paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp (or FedEx).

“If I had thought about it, I wouldn’t have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can’t do this.” — Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M ‘Post-It’ notes.

Those who shape popular culture also have cloudy crystal balls.

“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.” — Decca Records executive Dick Rowe rejecting the Beatles in 1962. (In mitigation of Mr Rowe, Southern Cross editor and Beatles obsessive Günther Simmermacher tells me that on evidence of the audition tape, the Decca man was right to reject the Fab Four. Mr Rowe later signed the Rolling Stones.)

“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” — HM Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.” — Gary Cooper, on not taking the leading role in Gone With The Wind.

All of which just goes to show that when it comes to the future, don’t believe anything mere mortals tell you. Rather get on your knees and ask the only One who really knows.