The Next Pope: Lists Abound, but Certainty Does Not

by CNS · May 1, 2025

Cardinals Dieudonné Nzapalainga of Bangui, Central African Republic, left, and Timothy M. Dolan of New York, right, approach the Paul VI Audience Hall ahead of the fifth general congregation meeting of cardinals at the Vatican April 28, 2025. (CNS photo/Vatican Media)

By Cindy Wooden, CNS – After the funeral and burial of Pope Francis on April 26, the attention of the world turned to who would be the next pope.

The news media, blogs, pundits and people on the street all seem to have their favourite candidate or a list of “probable” next popes, but the College of Cardinals as a whole does not.

The conclave to elect a new pope is scheduled to begin May 7 in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican.

The cardinals who were in Rome when Pope Francis died on April 21 began meeting in “general congregation” the next morning. Each day more cardinals arrived.

The general congregation is open to all cardinals, including those who are over 80 years of age and not eligible to enter the conclave to vote for a new pope.

The general congregation handles “important matters” in the continued operation of the Roman Curia, but it also is the place where cardinals from across the globe have an opportunity to speak about the needs of the church and the world and the kind of person who could respond to those challenges as pope.

In the four daily general congregation meetings before Pope Francis’ funeral, 67 cardinals spoke during the “shared reflection on the church and the world,” according to Matteo Bruni, director of the Vatican press office. Another 20 spoke in the morning April 28.

Comments from cardinals who elected Pope Benedict in 2005 and Pope Francis in 2013 indicated that the final vote depended largely on what they had said during those pre-conclave meetings. Pope Benedict’s prominent role as dean of the college during the “sede vacante” following St. John Paul II’s death also gave him a platform for speaking out about the needs of the church.

Most lists of the “papabile” or potential popes were compiled while Pope Francis was alive and have nothing to do with the current discussions in the general congregation.

In fact, as the cardinals arrived in Rome and joined the meetings, they were required to take an oath to “promise, pledge and swear, as a body and individually,” to observe the rules for the meeting and the coming conclave and “to maintain rigorous secrecy with regard to all matters in any way related to the election of the Roman Pontiff.”

The lists compiled and published before Pope Francis’ funeral had five names in common:

— Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, Vatican secretary of state under Pope Francis.

— Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, who had been pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelisation.

— Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.

— Italian Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem.

— French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, archbishop of Marseille.

When Pope Francis was hospitalised in March, Catholic News Service spoke about the process of electing a new pope with Kurt Martens, a professor of canon law at The Catholic University of America in Washington.

Making lists of “papabile,” he said, “is a nice hobby.”

The lists, Martens said, usually are prompted by the concerns and viewpoint of the person making the list.

But to know “who is a possible pope in the eyes of the cardinals,” he said, “you have to ask yourself the question: What are they looking for? How do they look at the church and the world today? And what is the best profile of someone to become a pope then?”

As the general congregation meetings proceeded, the answer to those questions should have become clearer to the cardinals. How much they might share with the public is a different question.